You’re Not Alone

In fact, we are all part of a piece of significant history.  

We are all astounded, surprised and depressed with the ‘winter conditions’ we’ve got.  You are not alone.  Snow for Halloween? Pretty normal.  Snow for Thanksgiving?  Pretty much the usual.  The Range had both this year.  Snow for Christmas?  Guaranteed. Except for this year.  

I’ve spent a lot of time answering questions from folks around here on the subject of the average date we can start setting tracks.  I have those data.  Over the past 50 years, the average time we can officially open trails is 12 December.  That’s the average, all the gol’durn biometry classes they made me take require that I also need to report the number of samples (n) and the variance (or how wide the bell curve graph of all the sample points).  The variance of our trail history is a good week or 10 days either side of the 12th of December; but it was tending more towards earlier than later.  

Until this year.

So I started looking for folks up here who have had more winters than my 50.  I asked them if they remember a holiday with no snow.  Almost every one noted that there were many years where it looked like it, and then a Christmas Eve or Christmas Day storm rolled in and well; White Christmas.  

But take heart! It does appear that our current conditions are not completely without precedent.  It looks like we’ve survived this befor.  According to quiet a few people, who were too young to actually remember, or not born yet, 1931 and 1951-2 were not white Christmases.  

Almost a hundred years and only 2 (well, now 3) late, late seasons.  A statistician would say that there’s a 97% chance we’ll be skiing by the long holiday.  We just fell into the wrong side of the chance this year.

The old Trail Chief is ready.  The Sunday Service crew did yeoman’s work on the trails this fall.  All of us walking the trails these past 3 weeks are impressed with how good they look.  Wind fall cleared, overhanging branches cut, little nasty pole grabbing woody stems mowed down with the zest of brush saws.  Between you and the Chief, with no snow, we can all see the fall work done this year.  Most years (97%) the snow buries all evidence of fall work completed and we just merrily ski over it.  

Stout heart!  We all look out the morning window wondering if the miracle has happened.  It will.  Perhaps we’ll appreciate it a little more for the next few years.

Look for the Chief and the other Rangers out there.  We’ll be the ones singing or wearing bells this season.

When it comes, and it will, Ski Freely!      Z